Net Overseas Migration continues to fall, now at 301,000

Official release date: 18 June 2026 · General

Data released in June 2026 showed annual Net Overseas Migration to December 2025 at 301,000, down 9% on the previous year, with temporary visa holder and student numbers both lower.

Picture this: you are an international student or temporary visa holder, and you keep hearing in the news that migration numbers are changing. What does that actually mean for you? Let's unpack the latest figures and why they matter.

What has changed

This is not a new rule. It is important context. In June 2026, the Minister for Home Affairs released data based on Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing that annual Net Overseas Migration (NOM) to December 2025 was 301,000. Here's the thing: that is:

• Down 9% on the previous year
• More than 45% below the peak recorded in 2023

NOM for the first half of 2025-26 was 145,000, compared with a full-year Budget forecast of 295,000.

NOM from temporary visa holders and from international students each fell by 10% over the year, and student NOM is now back to levels seen before COVID. A later release in September reported NOM at 292,000, showing the downward trend has continued.

Who is affected

NOM measures the difference between people arriving in and leaving Australia for the longer term. It is not a cap on individual visas, and it does not change your existing visa. However, it does shape government policy. Many of the recent changes to processing priorities, program planning and student settings are linked to the government's aim of managing NOM.

That is why we are seeing more focus on applicants who are already in Australia, and on pathways that support genuine skills needs.

How it compares

The figures show a clear shift from the high levels of 2023. For students and temporary visa holders, the policy environment is now more measured, and applications are being assessed with close attention to genuineness and compliance.

What you should do

For most people, the best response is to focus on what you can control. Keep your visa valid, follow your visa conditions, and plan your next step early rather than waiting until your visa is about to expire. If you are a student, maintain your enrolment, attendance and course progress. If you are a worker, make sure your employment matches your visa.

Breaching conditions or letting your visa lapse can lead to cancellation, loss of lawful status and difficulty obtaining future visas. In a tighter environment, a clean compliance record and a well-prepared application matter more than ever.

If you would like to talk through how this applies to you, our registered migration agents and lawyers at Auzworld Lawyers & Immigration are here to help.

Official source: Minister for Home Affairs (Tony Burke) – media release